In this commentary, I thought I would set aside all the political gamesmanship and finger pointing for a moment — and just deal with the disease. I truly believe that all those responsible for mitigating the outbreak are working hard to save lives and find that vaccine. That includes the Trump administration, the governors, mayors, we the people and, above all, the medical professionals at every level. The political wrangling is an unfortunate side effect that we must all endure. If only we could mitigate that.
But first the bad news. It is a BIG deal. While Covid-19 is in the flu category – and other flus are of the corona variety – this one is different in in a number of ways. And they are all unfortunate. It is the perfect storm for an infectious disease.
- It is called “Novel” Coronavirus because it is not like any previous strain. Consequently, the medical scientists do not yet fully understand its characteristics. Will It ebb in Summer, as do most flus? Don’t know. Will it return in the Fall? Don’t know. How long before we can produce a vaccine? Don’t know. Are there existing drugs that can mitigate the impact of Covid-19? Don’t know.
- Covid 19 is among the more infectious diseases – meaning it can be more easily passed from person to person. It is most effectively transmitted by inhaling airborne droplets – although it can be picked up on surfaces. The virus’ survival rate on surfaces depends on the make-up. Estimates suggest a couple hours on metal – and even less time on copper – and perhaps 48 hours on plastic. The infectious rate is higher because of the length of time that a person may have the disease before symptoms appear – and the fact that many carriers are asymptomatic.
- It has a higher fatality rate than most flu viruses. It is currently running at approximately 1.5 percent in the United states – but much higher in other nations. The American fatality rate is 15 times the rate of most flus, but substantially less than the rate of the more deadly ones. The so-called Avian or Bird Flu of 2006 had a world death rate of approximately 60 percent – but it was confined to the eastern hemisphere and was more easily containable. Although it did result in the slaughter of millions of chickens and other birds.
There is no good calculation of the fatality rate for the 1918 Spanish flu. It most certainly exceeded 2.5 percent and may have been as high as 20 percent – depending on the location. We can say that it did kill .007 percent of the entire 103,000 million Americans in 1918 – 675,000 people, to be precise. Based on today’s population of 330,000,000, that would be 2.3 million fatalities.
- Since there is no vaccine yet, the only way to reduce the caseload and the fatality rate is to mitigate the spread … period. That means social separation and constant hygiene. We can also use the antibodies of those who have survived the virus to build immunity in those who have ot contracted the disease yet. It is not a vaccine, but it can work like one.
- Like the disease itself, the economic consequences will drag on for a while. There is likely to be a fast recovery, but our national culture and policies – and our day-to-day lives – will not go back to what they were just a few weeks ago. We are still living with many of the security features that were imposed after 9/11 – and we will live with a number of hygiene habits that we are seeing today. We may never again shake the hand of our doctor or see the smiling face of our nurse.
All this means that the numbers – cases and deaths — are going to continue to rise exponentially for the near future. President Trump is hopeful of reducing restrictions in some regions of the nation by Easter Sunday. That is possible – according to the top medical professionals — but not likely.
So, what is the good news?
- Social distancing and enhanced hygiene are slowing down the virus. No matter how bad it gets, it will not be as bad as it might have been. We are pushing back against its infectiousness. This is a race against time. Keep down the spread as much as possible as we head into warmer weather – and hopefully a natural abatement of the disease. It is also a race to a vaccine and the potential utilization of other current drugs.
- Americas excellent healthcare system – even when overtaxed – is far better than most of the other nations. Put simply, that means seriously ill individuals – who might otherwise die – will survive. When the fatality rate was pegged at four percent in China, I predicted that it would be significantly lower in the United States because of our health system. It was just common sense.
- Though Covid-19 has a higher mortality rate than most common flus, it is a mild disease for some 80 percent of those who contract it. They will not need medical intervention – and may not even know they have the bug. Of the 20 percent with more severe symptoms, the death rate rises to approximately 2.7 percent. The highest fatality rate is among those up in years (75-plus) and with ADVANCED underlying issues – especially pulmonary diseases.
- This is America. That means we have the greatest cooperative ability to fight back. We have the internal strength to accept tragedy when it strikes. And we have the greatest will to restore our national vitality. Like any wartime victory, we will honor those who fought the good battle on the frontline – and remember and mourn those who have fallen.
Things will get worse before they get better. We recently passed 100,000 cases of Covid-19 in the United States. It is entirely possible that our death toll may reach, or exceed, that number. We should not be shocked, despair or panic. We just need to keep fighting on until the battle is won.
So, there ‘tis.
Another good thing you should have mentioned; the travel to and from China and Europe drastically cut down the spread of the virus in the USA.
the travel ban……..
Good info, no political BS. Need more sites like this. Keep up the good work.
Many people, including myself, have had the virus according to the symptoms. 4 days and over it. Some stats this past year in the USA. 69,000 drug deaths, 38,000 flu deaths, 1,300,000 deaths by abortion. Corona to date 2500 deaths. Mostly older people with health issues or others with health issues. Note for everyone. About 90% of people that go on a ventilator will die. No vaccine yet. No cure yet. Just have to get over it. I need my job. Lets get back to work. It is unfortunate that political infighting and media driven panic have dominated this virus, but we need to put it in perspective. My gut feeling is that a large % of the population already have had and recovered from this virus. Lets hope so. Thanks and good luck all.
With all the information out there about Covid 19 I would be interested to know what are the projected rates of infection in the USA. It almost seems as if it is something that is being withheld to keep us from panicking.